From “Universal Growth” to “Divergence”: A Review of Driving Mechanisms of Urban Housing Price Fluctuations in China

• Jiajun Ding

  Author

• Jiaqi Ding

  Author

Since the nationwide implementation of the urban housing system reform in 1998, China’s urban housing market has experienced three distinct evolutionary stages: nationwide universal synchronized housing expansion, regional rotational expansion, and hierarchical structural divergence. Centered on this unique temporal and spatial evolution track of China’s housing sector, this paper establishes a dual analytical framework encompassing long-term fundamental factors and short-term non-fundamental shocks. It systematically elaborates the mechanisms through which population agglomeration, differentiated land supply regimes, industrial structure, monetary credit, policy regulation and market expectations shape housing price fluctuations and cross-city divergence. Additionally, this study reviews the limitations of existing literature regarding causal identification, microscopic mechanism granularity, and general equilibrium modeling. Combining the emerging paradigm of real estate development and the dual trends of population inflection and demographic aging, this paper proposes future research agendas and policy implications, providing a solid theoretical basis for understanding China’s real estate market transformation and preventing potential systemic risks.

• JAESD000024.pdf